RESEARCH ON HOUSING RESTORATION COSTS AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT FOR URBAN EARTHQUAKES
Keywords:Disaster risk management, Housing restoration costs, Earthquakes in Japan, Stochastic seismic analysis, Ex-post compensation
A damage estimation by the Cabinet Office of the Japanese Government examines an earthquake directly beneath the Tokyo as an earthquake disaster that will cause enormous damage. The economic losses are made clear in this damage estimation; however, the effects of financial support systems such as housing restoration funds, support grants for reconstructing the livelihoods of disaster victims, and earthquake insurance payments, which are insufficient throughout the region, are not clarified. In an urban structure such as Tokyo, where there are many apartment buildings, various financial support systems that were established according to lessons learned from previous disasters may not be effective. Therefore, this research performed a stochastic seismic analysis of the Tokyo, and clarified trends in necessary restoration costs and various financial support funds for each category of damage (from partial destruction to complete destruction) according to the housing category. The Average Annual Loss (AAL) and Value at Risk (VaR) for the necessary restoration costs after a disaster were also estimated. To this end, individual building and households were modeled and a damage simulation was performed in order to understand the restoration costs required in the entire disaster area and to examine the effects of various financial support systems for procuring restoration costs. By showing AAL, VaR respectively, the costs required routinely and the costs needed when a major earthquake occurs were clarified. This research also showed quantitatively the extent to which these costs and support funds can be reduced by the ex-ante measure of making buildings earthquake proof.