@article{Adi Susilo_Farizky Hisyam_Wasis_2019, title={EARTHQUAKE ANALYSIS IN EAST JAVA, INDONESIA BETWEEN 1960 – 2017 USING MARKOV CHAIN MODEL}, volume={17}, url={https://geomatejournal.com/geomate/article/view/2159}, abstractNote={<p>Earthquake occurrence in East Java has been analyzed using a Markov Chain Model. The<br>catalog data comprised of earthquake events from East Java and its vicinity from 1960 until 2017. Data were<br>classified into subduction earthquake and inland fault earthquake. After that, the data were declustered using<br>Reasenberg (1985) algorithm for removing the aftershock. Spatial analysis was conducted by dividing the<br>research area into nine regions. Probability transition matrices which give information about the highest<br>probability transition of earthquake occurrence in each region were calculated for different magnitude<br>thresholds. Furthermore, the Chi-Square test was applied to examine the independence between earthquakes<br>occurrence. For seismic hazard analysis purpose, the temporal Markov chain analysis was employed by<br>determining the active (1) and inactive (0) period in each region based on the occurrence of earthquakes with<br>M ≥ 5 and depth d &lt; 70 km. From the two-state probability transition, the mean duration of active and inactive<br>states in each region have been obtained. Both spatial and magnitude analysis results inferred that subduction<br>earthquake with M ≥ 4, M ≥ 5, and inland fault earthquake with M ≥ 3 exhibited strong first-order Markov<br>property, i.e. there was a robust dependency between an earthquake occurrence and the successive occurrence.<br>The mean duration of the inactive state in the research area varied from 2.5 until 13.5 years.<br><br></p>}, number={63}, journal={GEOMATE Journal}, author={Adi Susilo and Farizky Hisyam and Wasis}, year={2019}, month={May}, pages={149–156} }