PROBABILISTIC LIQUEFACTION POTENTIAL ANALYSIS OF SAN FERNANDO PAMPANGA, PHILIPPINES USING SEMI-MARKOV CHAIN

Abstract

The Philippines is prone to earthquakes, making the liquefaction opportunity is higher compared to other regions and countries. Existing models in calculating the probability of liquefaction are memoryless which does not consider the current and previous conditions in predicting the future values, hence, a method utilizing a semi-Markov chain was used. The city of San Fernando, Pampanga in the Philippines was considered as the study area The liquefaction potential map was developed by identifying the acceleration to trigger liquefaction based on the susceptibility computation. Then, the liquefaction opportunity was taken from the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to determine the probability that the acceleration to initiate liquefaction will be exceeded. In addition, the seismic amplification factor was considered in the study, as well as an updated ground motion prediction equation. A semi-Markov chain was used in calculating the liquefaction potential. From the study, the liquefaction potential maps were developed, and it can be inferred that most parts of the province’s capital have a high liquefaction potential in the next fifty years.