MULTI-TEMPORAL SHORELINE DYNAMICS AND SPATIAL ECOTOURISM CARRYING CAPACITY IN MERU BETIRI, INDONESIA

Abstract

Coastal areas are dynamic environments that continuously experience shoreline changes due to the interaction of waves, tides, currents, and river discharge. These processes directly influence coastal stability, land availability, and the sustainability of tourism development, particularly in protected coastal zones. This study aims to analyse long-term shoreline dynamics and assess beach ecotourism suitability and spatially based carrying capacity in Meru Betiri National Park, East Java, Indonesia. Shoreline changes were quantified using multi-temporal high-resolution Google Earth imagery over a ten-year period (2012–2022) at four coastal locations: Muara Mbaduk, Rajekwesi, Teluk Ijo, and Sukamade. Manual shoreline digitisation was conducted to identify erosion and accretion patterns. Beach ecotourism suitability was evaluated using the Tourism Suitability Index (TSI), while the Regional Carrying Capacity (RCC) was calculated to estimate the maximum number of visitors that can be accommodated without causing environmental degradation. The results reveal spatial variability in shoreline dynamics, with net accretion of 1,535 m² at Muara Mbaduk, 36,340 m² at Rajekwesi, 2,687 m² at Teluk Ijo, and 30,497 m² at Sukamade. Muara Mbaduk is classified as suitable (TSI = 2.38), whereas Rajekwesi (TSI = 2.74), Teluk Ijo (TSI = 2.90), and Sukamade (TSI = 2.90) are classified as very suitable for beach ecotourism. The estimated carrying capacities are 493 persons/day at Muara Mbaduk, 327 persons/day at Rajekwesi, 66 persons/day at Teluk Ijo, and 90 persons/day at Sukamade. This integrated geomatics-based assessment provides spatially explicit information to support adaptive coastal management and sustainable tourism planning in dynamic and protected coastal environments.