APPLYING SELENA FOR STRATEGIC POST-EARTHQUAKE SHELTER PLACEMENT: A CASE STUDY FROM NEPAL

Abstract

Shelter planning following an earthquake is a critical component of disaster response and management, directly influencing the affected populations. Strategic shelter allocation must consider factors such as population density, infrastructure vulnerability, and accessibility to optimize emergency response efforts. This research introduces SELENA V7.0 (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach), an advanced open-source risk assessment tool designed to estimate potential physical damage and human losses from seismic events. Developed by NORSAR and the University of Alicante, this software has been used to enhance emergency planning through scenario-based risk analysis. The tool examines the anticipated seismic damage in the seven provinces of Nepal resulting from a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA)-based design earthquake with a 475-year return period, reference to a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Fragility models are integrated with Geographic Information System GIS-based spatial analysis to assess seismic risk across the provinces. The approach also supports identifying optimal shelter locations based on predicted infrastructure damage and accessibility constraints. The study outcomes are evaluated in terms of structural damage, economic losses varying from 0 to 1 billion Euros, number of homeless populations ranging from 2,330 to 57,463, and other relevant impact parameters as discussed in the results. The findings will equip policymakers and emergency planners to develop more effective shelter strategies, ultimately improving disaster resilience by providing critical evidence demonstrating how integrated technical and policy approaches can significantly enhance disaster resilience and emergency response effectiveness in seismic regions.