A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR HIGH-RISE SCHOOL BUILDING PROJECT IN METRO MANILA, PHILIPPINES

Abstract

The rapid increase of school building construction in the country was brought by the
implementation of a nationwide reform in pre-university education cycle from 10 to 12 years in June 2012.
The change demanded a significant increase in school buildings. However, construction of high-rise school
building project is unique due to its varying characteristics as compared to other types of building construction
project. Construction of such buildings depends on variables such as site, surrounding, size, structure, student
population, resources and culture. As a result, it is subject to numerous risk and weakness, which invariably
have significant negative impact on its overall performance. Therefore, risk assessment tools for school
buildings must be modified to fit these varying characteristics. However, there are three major challenges
during the planning stage of project risk management of such buildings, first is the correct identification of the
sources and type of risks, second the necessary statistical information and third, the selection of methods that
will successfully estimate the potential impacts and probabilities of occurrence. The study attempted to bridge
this gap by using Monte Carlo Analytic Network Process (MCANP) a weighted simulation decision making
model. As a result, the proposed method compared to traditional approach can quantify the error of uncertainty
in the judgements through the probabilistic judgements with a confidence level of 95%. Thus, the method
allows to estimate the probable value of losses and the degree of influence of each risk factor associated in
high-rise school building construction in Philippines.