ASSESSING REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL REGCM4.7.1: INSIGHTS FROM SIMULATIONS IN GEORGIA

Abstract

This study aims to assess the ability of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 4.7.1 to reproduce historical monthly mean temperatures and precipitation in different physical geographical conditions of Georgia. RegCM4.7.1 simulation has been done at 12 km resolution over the territory of Georgia from 1985 to 2014, with the hourly ERA5 high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as boundary conditions. Standard deviation is used to evaluate the model's performance against Georgia's meteorological station data. This metric helps quantify the agreement between model outputs and observed data. Conducting historical runs and validating the model against observed data contributes to understanding how regional climate models perform in regions with diverse geographical features and is crucial for ensuring the reliability of future climate projections. A group of weather stations with the best data modeling results in all months of the year when the difference between the actual and model data does not exceed the standard deviation value is Kutaisi, Gori, Sagarejo, Tbilisi, and Tsalka for air temperature and Akhalkalaki, Akhaltsikhe, Dedoplistskaro, Gori, Sagarejo, Tbilisi, Telavi, and Tianeti for precipitation. The modeling results are generally satisfactory, indicating that the model can be used effectively for future climate projections in Georgia. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, stakeholders, and researchers working on climate change adaptation in Georgia.