MODELING OF 2020 LAND SUBSIDENCE IN NINH KIEU DISTRICT, VIETNAM: FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS AND INSAR COMPARISON

Abstract

Land subsidence is a significant environmental hazard in the Mekong Delta, driven by the combined effects of weak Holocene sediments, rapid urbanization, and intensive groundwater extraction. This study reconstructs the land subsidence pattern of 2020 in Ninh Kieu District, Can Tho City, using a finite element modeling approach. The model incorporates detailed soil stratigraphy, building and surface loads, and groundwater-induced pore pressure variations to simulate representative annual settlement under the hydrogeological and loading conditions of 2020. Results reveal substantial spatial variability, with simulated subsidence rates ranging from 10 to 35 mm/year, concentrated along major roads, reclaimed zones, and newly developed urban areas underlain by thick, soft clay deposits. InSAR-derived deformation data for 2015–2020 were utilized for qualitative comparison, demonstrating good spatial agreement with the simulated hotspots of deformation. The study illustrates the effectiveness of physics-based modeling for reconstructing subsidence in deltaic environments and provides a methodological foundation for future scenario-based assessments of land subsidence and urban resilience planning in the Mekong Delta.