MODELLING ROAD ACCIDENT FATALITIES IN THAILAND AND OTHER ASIAN COUNTRIES

Abstract

Modelling was conducted of road accident fatalities (RAFs) in Thailand and other Asian
countries. Based on a cross-sectional analysis in 2013, an Asian model of predicted RAFs (per population) as
a function of motorization (registered vehicles per capita) was developed. In addition, an Asian RAFs (per
vehicles) prediction model was also developed. Increasing motorization corresponded with lower estimated
RAFs per 10,000 vehicles. Also, the Thailand RAFs (per population) prediction model was achieved based on
the limited time series analysis utilizing the 3 RAFs database sources. The motorization could potentially be
adapted to estimate the RAFs per 100,000 population in Thailand. Based on the Thailand RAFs prediction
model and the predicted motorization in 2020, the estimated RAFs per 100,000 population will be 3 times
greater than the targeted one. This means that Thailand will not be able to achieve the United Nations
Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for global road safety issues.