A MODEL FOR ASSESSMENT OF TREE STABILITY AND ENTRAINMENT OF WOODY DEBRIS BY FLOW SLIDES AND SHALLOW SLOPE FAILURE

Abstract

The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime changes in Cimanuk Watershed, West Java, Indonesia, analyzes the existing problems and contributes to the management of water resources in monsoon climate region in Indonesia. The results have shown that climate change is shown by the increasing temperature, meanwhile the air humidity, wind speed, sunshine duration, and evaporation are decrease. Changes of the hydrological regime have been known by the analysis of the main components of the hydrological cycle specifically discharge (Q) and precipitation (P). Precipitation and discharge had shown an increasing trend from 1987 to 2012, but with high variability in annual and monthly period. The critical condition of water availability for four months (June to September), while the excess water condition occurs during eight months (October to May). The Model of input-output correlation between precipitation and discharge have shown a positive correlation 0.9564 for the monthly average, and 0.5417 for the annual. The coefficient of annual water availability is high, shows that the region is monsoon with great potential for flooding. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the management of surplus water in the rainy season so that it is not wasted.