ASSESSING EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE FOR GAS DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS: UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS APPLICATION IN TLEMCEN (ALGERIA)

Abstract

It is currently admitted that Repair Rate per kilometer (RR) is one of the most suitable tools to measure the fragility of lifeline structures after earthquake. Many models have been developed during last decades and use seismic parameters. These later are derived from ground motion prediction equations (GMPE). Most of the above mentioned models do not take into account the inherent variability of the GMPE. This paper aims to establish a methodology to derive the repair rate by taking account the variability
associated with the GMPE. Through this methodology average as well as weighted average repair rates will be established. In order to apply the developed methodology, a model based on Peak ground velocity (PGV) is chosen. Through a sensitive case study it has been found that the weighted average repair rate is the most suitable. Indeed the obtained results show that the proposed approach leads to stable values of the repair rate whereas values obtained from other methods are not stable. Finally, weighted average values of RR obtained from the developed methodology are compared to conventional values obtained for a single GMPE and without uncertainty at the level of urban area (District of Tlemcen, Algeria). This comparative study shows that the developed methodology leads to interesting results